[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 March 20 issued 2338 UT on 04 Mar 2020

Thu Mar 5 10:38:48 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Mar             06 Mar             07 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 04 March. There 
are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. Very Low levels 
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 05-07 
March. The CME observed on 02 March was further analysed, it 
is expected to have an earth directed component but unlikely 
to be significant with the estimated shock arrival time late 
UT day 06 March. There is low confidence;the CME has been difficult 
to model, it was clear in STEREO A imagery but faint in LASCO 
imagery. No further Earth directed CMEs were observed in the 
available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed varied mainly 
around 400 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 2-6 nT and 
the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) between +3 nT and -5 
nT. The solar wind is expected to return to ambient levels today, 
05 March, then may become enhanced from 06 March due to a possible 
connection with a high speed stream from a south polar extension 
coronal hole and the anticipated CME passage.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 04 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   11112422
      Cocos Island         4   11101321
      Darwin               7   11112422
      Townsville           9   12123422
      Learmonth            9   11213422
      Alice Springs        7   02112422
      Gingin               6   11122322
      Canberra             5   01122312
      Hobart               8   11222412    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     6   00122421
      Casey               13   34422312
      Mawson              23   25223454

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   2112 2212     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Mar     7    Mostly Quiet
06 Mar    15    Quiet to Active
07 Mar    15    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 04 March was Quiet to Active 
for the Australian region. The Antarctic region observed isolated 
Minor Storm periods. Global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly Quiet for 05 March, but may increase to Active levels 
06-07 March if the solar wind becomes enhanced due to coronal 
hole effects and CME passage.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal
06 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal
07 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next two UT days, 05-06 March. Possible degraded propagation 
conditions on UT day 07 March.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Mar    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -8
Mar      -15
Apr      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Mar    -4    Near predicted monthly values
06 Mar    -4    Near predicted monthly values
07 Mar   -15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted 
monthly values to enhanced for the Australian region on 04 March. 
Minor MUFs depressions observed at Niue Island region. Sporadic-E 
occurrences were seen over some sites. Similar levels of ionospheric 
support is expected for the next three UT days, 05-07 March. 
Mild MUFs depressions are possible for 07 March.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 421 km/sec  Density:    6.5 p/cc  Temp:   119000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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