[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 07 Jul 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 8 09:31:25 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 07 July. There
is currently one numbered region on the visible disc (AR 2766
at N04W21). No active regions are expected to rotate onto the
visible disc. Very low solar activity is expected for the next
three UT days, 08 to 10 July. No Earthward directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph images. During UT day 07
July, the solar wind speed decreased from 470-480 km/s to 390
km/s, currently around 400 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) varied in the ranges 2-5 nT and +2/-2 nT,
respectively. During the next three UT days, 08-10 July, the
solar wind speed is expected to stay mostly near its nominal
levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 01100000
Cocos Island 0 01100000
Darwin 1 11100000
Townsville 1 12100000
Learmonth 1 01101000
Alice Springs 0 01100000
Gingin 1 01101000
Canberra 0 01100000
Hobart 1 11101000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 2 22200000
Mawson 5 23310001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 2121 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jul 7 Quiet
09 Jul 7 Quiet
10 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 07 July, geomagnetic conditions were quiet
in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
conditions were mostly quiet, with one isolated quiet to unsettled
period. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly
quiet during the next three UT days, 08 to 10 July. Unsettled
periods are possible on 08 July due to waning coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted to moderately
enhanced levels on UT day 07 July. Moderate depressions were
also observed, mostly at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere.
Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected for the
next three UT days, 08 to 10 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jul -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near monthly predicted
to moderately enhanced levels on UT day 07 July. The enhancements
were observed mostly during local night. Sporadic E was observed
at times over some Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced
levels for the next three UT days, 08 to 10 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 480 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 265000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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