[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 08 Jul 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 9 09:31:26 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 08 July. There
is currently one numbered region on the visible disc (AR 2766
at N04W34). No active regions are expected to rotate onto the
visible disc. Very low solar activity is expected for the next
three UT days, 09 to 11 July. No Earthward directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph images. During UT day 08
July, the solar wind speed decreased from 390-400 km/s to 350
km/s, currently near 350 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) varied in the ranges 2-3 nT and +2/-1 nT,
respectively. During the next three UT days, 09-11 July, the
solar wind speed is expected to stay mostly near its background
levels. Enhancements in the solar wind speed are possible on
09 July if the 5 July CME will arrive at the Earth and at the
end of UT day 11 July due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 00000000
Cocos Island 0 01000000
Darwin 0 00000000
Townsville 1 11000001
Learmonth 0 01000000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Gingin 0 00000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 1 02100000
Mawson 5 23100003
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1221 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jul 7 Quiet
10 Jul 7 Quiet
11 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 08 July, geomagnetic conditions were quiet
in the Australian region and mostly quiet in the Antarctic region.
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet during
the next three UT days, 09 to 11 July. Unsettled periods are
possible on 09 July if the 5 July CME will arrive at the Earth
and at the end of UT day 11 July due to coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced
levels on UT day 08 July. Moderate depressions were also observed,
mostly at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Mostly normal
HF propagation conditions are expected for the next three UT
days, 09 to 11 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jul -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near monthly predicted
to mildly enhanced levels on UT day 08 July. The enhancements
were observed mostly during local night. Sporadic E was observed
at times over some Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced
levels for the next three UT days, 09 to 11 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 131000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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