[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 06 Jul 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 7 09:31:28 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 06 July. There
is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible disc
(AR 2766 at N04W08). No active regions are expected to rotate
onto the visible disc. Very low solar activity is expected for
the next three UT days, 07 to 09 July. No Earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. During
UT day 06 July, the solar wind speed varied between 440 km/s
and 510 km/s, currently around 480 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied in the ranges 3-5 nT
and +3/-3 nT, respectively. During the next two UT days, 07-08
July, the solar wind speed is expected to remain moderately elevated
due to coronal hole effects and then it is expected to return
to its background levels on 09 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11111010
Cocos Island 1 11001010
Darwin 2 11101011
Townsville 3 21111011
Learmonth 2 11111110
Alice Springs 1 10111010
Gingin 2 11111110
Canberra 0 10001000
Hobart 2 11111110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 00111000
Casey 5 23211110
Mawson 10 22222342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 13 3443 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jul 7 Quiet
08 Jul 7 Quiet
09 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 06 July, geomagnetic conditions were quiet
in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
conditions were mostly quiet, with isolated unsettled and active
periods. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly
quiet during the next three UT days, 07 to 09 July. Unsettled
periods are possible on 07 and 08 July due to coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced
levels on UT day 06 July. Moderate depressions were also observed,
mostly at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Mostly normal
HF propagation conditions are expected for the next three UT
days, 07 to 09 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jul 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near monthly predicted
to mildly enhanced levels on UT day 06 July. Sporadic E was observed
at times over some Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced
levels for the next three UT days, 07 to 09 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 474 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 218000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list