[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 04 Jul 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 5 09:31:18 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 04 July. There
is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible disc
(AR 2766 at N04 E19). No active regions are expected to rotate
onto the visible disc. Very Low solar activity is expected for
the next three UT days, 05 to 07 July. No Earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. During
UT day 04 July, the solar wind speed increased throughout the
day from 290 km/s to a maximum of 473 km/s at 04/2238 UT, currently
around 420 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) started the day varying between
1 and 7 nT, then began increasing after midday and is currently
varying between 5-10 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) began
a southward period after 04/1830 UT, reaching a minimum of -8.4
nT at 04/1856 UT. During the next two UT days, 05-06 July, the
solar wind speed is expected to remain moderately enhanced due
to a north polar extension coronal hole, returning to background
levels on 07 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 11212111
Cocos Island 3 01211111
Darwin 4 12212111
Townsville 5 11212122
Learmonth 4 01222112
Alice Springs 3 01112111
Gingin 3 01111122
Canberra 1 10101011
Hobart 3 11111111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 4 01211122
Mawson 9 21211234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1111 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled, chance of isolated Active
periods
06 Jul 7 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 04 July, geomagnetic conditions were Quiet
in the Australian region and Quiet-Unsettled in the Antarctic
region. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet-Unsettled
for the next two UT days, 05-06 July, with a chance of isolated
Active periods on 05 July due to coronal hole effects from a
north polar extension coronal hole, returning to mainly Quiet
conditions on UT day 07 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced
levels on UT day 04 July. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 05-07 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jul 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near monthly predicted
to moderately enhanced levels on UT day 04 July. Sporadic E was
observed at times over some Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted to mildly
enhanced levels for the next three UT days, 05 to 07 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 305 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 19200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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