[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 03 Jul 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 4 09:31:25 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jul             05 Jul             06 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 03 July. Very 
Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 04 
to 06 July. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph images. During UT day 03 July, the solar wind speed 
varied between 280 km/s and 330 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) between 
1 and 6 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) in the range 
-4 to 2 nT. During the next UT day, 04 July, the solar wind speed 
is expected to vary between its background levels and slightly 
enhanced values due to possible minor coronal hole effects. The 
solar wind may become moderately enhanced on UT days 05-06 July 
due to a north polar extension coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   01110000
      Cocos Island         0   01100000
      Darwin               1   11100000
      Townsville           1   01110001
      Learmonth            0   01100000
      Alice Springs        0   01100000
      Gingin               0   01000000
      Canberra             0   01010000
      Hobart               1   01120000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     1   01020000
      Casey                1   01110000
      Mawson               3   22101011

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1000 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jul     6    Quiet, with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods
05 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled, with chance of isolated Active 
                periods
06 Jul     7    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: On UT day 03 July, geomagnetic conditions were Quiet 
in the Australian and Antarctic regions. Global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be mostly Quiet for the next UT day, 04 July, 
with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods due to weak coronal 
hole effects. Geomagnetic activity may increase to Unsettled 
levels on UT days 05-06 July, with a chance of isolated Active 
periods on 05 July, due to possible coronal hole effects from 
a north polar extension coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced 
levels on UT day 03 July. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 04-06 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Jul    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -1
Jul      -12
Aug      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
05 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near monthly predicted 
to moderately enhanced levels on UT day 03 July. Sporadic E was 
observed at times over some Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted to mildly 
enhanced levels for the next three UT days, 04 to 06 July.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 323 km/sec  Density:    8.4 p/cc  Temp:    26500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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