[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 02 Jul 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 3 09:31:20 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 02 July. Very
low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 03
to 05 July. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph images. During UT day 02 July, the solar wind speed
varied mostly between 310 km/s and 350 km/s, the total IMF (Bt)
between 1 and 5 nT, the north-south IMF component (Bz) in the
range +3/-2 nT and the solar wind particle density between 6
and 12 ppcc. During the next two UT days, 03 to 04 July, the
solar wind speed is expected to vary between its background levels
and slightly enhanced values due to possible minor coronal hole
effects. Due to a possible coronal hole effect, solar wind speed
may show mild to moderate rise on UT day 05 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11101000
Cocos Island 1 01110000
Darwin 1 11101100
Townsville 2 11101111
Learmonth 2 11102000
Alice Springs 0 01001000
Gingin 1 11002000
Canberra 1 11002000
Hobart 2 11002100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00002000
Casey 2 12001100
Mawson 4 31000113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1111 1023
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled conditions possible
04 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled conditions possible
05 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 02 July, geomagnetic conditions were quiet
in the Australian region. Mostly quiet conditions with isolated
unsettled periods were observed in the Antarctic region. Global
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet for the next
two UT days, 03 to 04 July, with small possibility of isolated
unsettled periods due to week coronal hole effects. There are
slightly higher chances of geomagnetic activity rising to unsettled
level on UT day 05 July due to possible coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced
levels on UT day 02 July. The enhancements were observed mostly
during local night. Sporadic E and spread F were observed at
times over some sites. MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly
predicted to mildly enhanced levels for the next three UT days,
03 to 05 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jul -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near monthly predicted
to moderately enhanced levels on UT day 02 July. The enhancements
were observed mostly during local night. Sporadic E and spread
F were observed at times over some Australian sites. MUFs in
the Australian region are expected to be mostly near monthly
predicted to mildly enhanced levels for the next three UT days,
03 to 05 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 326 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 24000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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