[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 23 Jan 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 24 10:31:25 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jan 25 Jan 26 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 23 January. The
visible solar disk is currently spotless. Active region 2756
may rotate on the visible solar disk on UT day 25 January. During
the previous rotation, AR2756 produced two weak B-class flares.
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 24 to 26 January. No Earth directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery during the last 24 hours.
During UT day 23 January, the solar wind speed varied between
320 km/s and 375 km/s. The total IMF Bt was mostly steady near
4 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) was in the
range of +3 nT and -3 nT during the last 24 hours. The three
day outlook (UT day 24 to 26 January) is for the solar wind to
remain mostly near its background level.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 21000111
Cocos Island 1 11000110
Darwin 2 11020111
Townsville 2 21000111
Learmonth 2 21000121
Alice Springs 1 11000111
Gingin 2 21000121
Canberra 1 11000011
Hobart 2 21000111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 11 34411121
Mawson 11 33111234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1211 0002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jan 5 Quiet
25 Jan 5 Quiet
26 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been quiet across the Australian
regions through UT day 23 January. In the Antarctic region geomagnetic
activity varied from quiet to unsettled levels. Mostly quiet
and occasional unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected
for the next three UT days (24 to 26 January).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation support are expected for
the next three UT days. Conditions may be slightly poor in the
Southern Hemisphere due to sporadic-E occurrences.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jan -19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -29
Jan -16
Feb -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values for the Australian region on UT day 23 January
with some periods of minor depressions as well as periods of
minor enhancements. Sporadic-E occurrences were also observed
over some Australian stations. Nearly similar levels of ionospheric
support is expected in the Australian regions for the next three
UT days, 24 to 26 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 65700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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