[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 24 Jan 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 25 10:31:24 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jan             26 Jan             27 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 24 January. A 
new sunspot has emerged in the NE quadrant(no number yet). Very 
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days, 25-27 January. There is a chance of increased solar 
activity over the next coming days due to new development. No 
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed was at 
nominal levels, under 350 km/s. The total IMF Bt was mostly steady 
near 3 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) was in 
the range of +/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be 
mostly near its background levels for the next two days, 25-26 
January. Slight enhancements may be observed on 27 January due 
to weak coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11101100
      Cocos Island         0   10000100
      Darwin               2   11101101
      Townsville           3   11111111
      Learmonth            1   11001100
      Alice Springs        1   00001101
      Gingin               0   00001010
      Canberra             1   00101010
      Hobart               1   01102000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   00101000
      Casey                7   33311011
      Mawson               9   42101142

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   1200 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jan     5    Quiet
26 Jan     5    Quiet
27 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 24 January was Quiet for the 
Australian region. The Antarctic region observed Quiet to Active 
conditions. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly 
at Quiet levels for the next three days, 25-27 January with a 
chance of isolated Unsettled periods on 27 January due to weak 
coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days, 25-27 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jan   -15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -29
Jan      -16
Feb      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values
26 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values
27 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values for the Australian region on 24 January. Minor 
to Moderate MUFs depressions observed at Cocos Island region. 
Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over some sites. Similar levels 
of ionospheric support is expected for the next three UT days, 
25-27 January.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 342 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    40500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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