[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 22 Jan 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 23 10:31:25 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jan             24 Jan             25 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 22 January. The 
visible solar disk is currently spotless. Very low levels of 
solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 23 to 
25 January. A faint CME was observed in the LASCO C2 coronagraph 
imagery starting at 22/0636 UT. Preliminary investigation suggest 
that it is a far-side event and therefore will not affect Earth. 
During UT day 22 January, the solar wind speed was steady near 
its background level of 350 km/s. The total IMF Bt was in the 
range of 3 to 7 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) 
was in the range of +5 nT and -5 nT during the last 24 hours. 
The three day outlook (UT day 23 to 25 January) is for the solar 
wind to remain mostly near its background level.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12121022
      Cocos Island         3   11111022
      Darwin               3   12111012
      Townsville           6   12222023
      Learmonth            5   22121122
      Alice Springs        4   12121012
      Gingin               6   21121123
      Canberra             6   22222022
      Hobart               5   12222022    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     5   11133001
      Casey               17   34532123
      Mawson              23   44323136

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   0001 1232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jan     5    Quiet
24 Jan     5    Quiet
25 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been quiet across the Australian 
regions through UT day, 22 January. In the Antarctic region geomagnetic 
activity varied from quiet to active levels in response to prolonged 
southward IMF Bz condition. Mostly quiet and occasional unsettled 
geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next three UT days 
(23 to 25 January).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation support are expected for 
the next three UT days. Conditions may be slightly poor in the 
Southern Hemisphere due to sporadic-E occurrences.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Jan   -17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -29
Jan      -16
Feb      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values
24 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values
25 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values for the Australian region on UT day 22 January 
with some periods of minor depressions as well as periods of 
minor enhancements. Sporadic-E occurrences were also observed 
over some Australian stations. Nearly similar levels of ionospheric 
support is expected in the Australian regions for the next three 
UT days, 23 to 25 January.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 307 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    35600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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