[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 11 Jan 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 12 10:31:19 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 71/6 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 11 January. There
are two numbered regions on the visible solar disc, AR 2755 and
AR 2756. AR 2756 will soon rotate to the far-side of the visible
disc. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the
next three UT days, 12-14 January. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During 11 January,
the solar wind speed ranged from 420 km/s to 500 km/s, and in
general declining. This was in response to the waning effect
of a coronal hole. The total IMF (Bt) was mostly steady near
5 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the
range +/-4 nT. Today, UT day 12 January, the solar wind speed
is expected to decline to its background level as the coronal
hole effects wane further; on UT day 13 January the speed is
expected to be at background levels. The solar wind is expected
to enhance again from UT day 14 January due to another small
coronal hole reaching geoeffective location on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22221111
Cocos Island 2 21110100
Darwin 3 12121101
Townsville 4 12221111
Learmonth 5 22211212
Alice Springs 3 21121101
Gingin 5 22210212
Canberra 2 11120101
Hobart 3 11220111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jan :
Macquarie Island 3 11220200
Casey 13 34422222
Mawson 11 33322223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1132 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jan 5 Quiet
13 Jan 7 Quiet
14 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: On UT day 11 January, geomagnetic activity was mostly
at quiet levels in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region,
mostly quiet to active conditions were observed. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels during the
next two UT days, 12-13 January. Condition may reach unsettled
to active levels on UT day 14 January due to the arrival of the
coronal effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next two UT days, 12-13 January. Some disturbance in
the HF propagation conditions may occur be experienced on UT
day 14 January due to the predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jan -24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -29
Jan -16
Feb -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values for the Australian region on UT day 11 January.
Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over all Australian sites. Similar
HF propagation conditions are expected for the next three UT
days, 12-14 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 505 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 139000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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