[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 January 20 issued 2331 UT on 12 Jan 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 13 10:31:17 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 12 January. Currently
there are no sunspots on the visible solar disc. Very low levels
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 13-15
January. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During 12 January, the solar wind speed
ranged from 370 km/s to 440 km/s and in general it was declining.
The total IMF (Bt) was varying mostly between 1 nT and 5 nT.
The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range
+/-3 nT. During UT day 13 January, the solar wind speed is expected
to vary mostly near its background level. The solar wind speed
is expected to increase on UT day 14 January due to arrival of
the high-speed solar wind stream associated with a recurrent
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11101001
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 11101001
Townsville 3 21111011
Learmonth 2 11211001
Alice Springs 2 11201001
Gingin 1 11100000
Canberra 1 01101000
Hobart 2 01211001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 01110000
Casey 12 34422112
Mawson 9 34212103
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1231 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jan 7 Quiet
14 Jan 12 Quiet to Active
15 Jan 10 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: On UT day 12 January, geomagnetic activity was at quiet
levels in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region, quiet
to active conditions were observed. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly at quiet levels during the next UT day,
13 January; then it may reach unsettled to active levels on UT
days 14-15 January due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next UT day, 13 January. Some degradation in the HF propagation
conditions may occur during UT days 14-15 January due to the
predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jan -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -29
Jan -16
Feb -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jan -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values for the Australian region on UT day 12 January.
Mild depressions were observed in the Southern Australian region
during local day. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over all Australian
sites. Similar HF propagation conditions are expected for the
next three UT days, 13-15 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 102000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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