[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 February 20 issued 2331 UT on 23 Feb 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 24 10:31:26 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day, 23 February.
There are currently no active regions on the visible disc and
no regions are expected to return. Very Low levels of solar activity
are forecast for the next three days, 24-26 February. No Earth-bound
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT
day 23 February, the solar wind was moderately enhanced due to
coronal hole effects. The solar wind speed varied between 410
and 460 km/s and is currently around 430 km/s. The total IMF
(Bt) varied between 3-6 nT and the north-south component of the
IMF (Bz) varied between -5 to 3 nT. The solar wind is expected
to continue to weaken on 24 February as the influence of the
coronal hole wanes. It may become moderately enhanced on UT day
25 February due to a small equatorial coronal hole, then continue
to return towards background values on 26 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 10101222
Cocos Island 2 00010122
Darwin 3 01101222
Townsville 4 10111222
Learmonth 3 10010222
Alice Springs 3 00101222
Gingin 3 10000222
Canberra 3 11101122
Hobart 3 10101221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 00000111
Casey 12 24321233
Mawson 22 32220356
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2212 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Feb 5 Quiet
25 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated
Active periods
26 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 23 February were Quiet
for the Australian region. Antarctic regions experienced mainly
Quiet to Unsettled conditions, with some isolated Active to Minor
Storm periods. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be
at mainly Quiet levels on UT day 24 February. It may increase
to Quiet to Unsettled levels on 25 February, with a chance of
isolated Active periods, due to coronal hole effects, then decrease
to Quiet to Unsettled levels on 26 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal propagation conditions are expected 24-26
February. Minor depressions possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Feb -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 115% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -20
Feb -16
Mar -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
25 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
26 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 23 February
were mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced. The Cocos
Island region observed moderate depressions during the local
night. Sporadic E was observed over most sites. Over the next
3 UT days, 24-26 February, MUFs are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly values, with minor depressions up to 20% possible
on UT days 25-26 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 478 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 98400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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