[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 February 20 issued 2339 UT on 22 Feb 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 23 10:39:07 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day, 22 February.
There are currently no active regions on the visible disc and
no regions are expected to return. Very Low levels of solar activity
are forecast for the next three days, 23-25 February. No Earth-bound
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT
day 22 February, the solar wind was moderately enhanced due to
coronal hole effects. The solar wind speed varied between 425
and 550 km/s in the first half of the UT day, then began to gradually
decline and is currently around 450 km/s. The total IMF (Bt)
varied between 1-5 nT and the north-south component of the IMF
(Bz) varied between -4 to 3 nT. The solar wind is expected to
continue to decrease on 23 February as the influence of the coronal
hole wanes, returning to background conditions on 24 February.
A moderate enhancement in the solar wind is possible on UT day
25 February due to a small equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 21123321
Cocos Island 5 10113320
Darwin 6 21122321
Townsville 5 21122221
Learmonth 7 21113321
Alice Springs 6 11113321
Gingin 8 21123331
Canberra 6 11122321
Hobart 6 11122321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Feb :
Macquarie Island 7 11123321
Casey 19 34533332
Mawson 35 63423365
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14 4333 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Feb 5 Quiet
25 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated
Active periods
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 22 February were Quiet
to Unsettled for the Australian region. Antarctic regions experienced
mainly Quiet to Unsettled conditions, with Mawson station observing
Active to Major Storm periods and Casey station an Active to
Minor Storm period. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to
be at Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT day 23 February, then return
to Quiet levels on 24 February as the coronal hole effects wane.
It may increase to Quiet to Unsettled levels on 25 February,
with a chance of isolated Active periods, due to coronal hole
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal propagation conditions are expected 23-25
February. Minor depressions possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Feb -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -20
Feb -16
Mar -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
24 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
25 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 22 February
were mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced, with minor
depressions observed in the Niue Island and Northern Australian
regions during the local day and in the Antarctic region over
the UT day. Sporadic E was observed over most sites. Over the
next 3 UT days, 23-25 February, MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values, with minor depressions up to 20%
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 476 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 124000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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