[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 February 20 issued 2335 UT on 21 Feb 2020

Sat Feb 22 10:35:14 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Feb             23 Feb             24 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day, 21 February. 
There are currently no active regions on the visible disc and 
no regions are expected to return. Very Low levels of solar activity 
are forecast for the next three days, 22-24 February. No Earth-bound 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT 
day 21 February, the solar wind was moderately enhanced due to 
coronal hole effects. The solar wind speed started around 400 
km/s then gradually increased to around 500 km/s, and the total 
IMF (Bt) ranged between 2-8 nT. The north-south component of 
the IMF (Bz) had a southward period up to 21/0500 UT, reaching 
a minimum of -6.1 nT at 21/0332 UT, then varied between -7 to 
+6 nT for the rest of the UT day. The solar wind is expected 
to continue to be moderately enhanced on 22 February, returning 
to background conditions on 23-24 February as the influence of 
the coronal hole wanes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 21 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   22332322
      Cocos Island         6   21222311
      Darwin               8   22232312
      Townsville          10   22332322
      Learmonth           10   22232422
      Alice Springs        9   22332312
      Gingin              10   22232422
      Canberra             9   22331322
      Hobart              11   22342322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    13   32342421
      Casey               17   33532323
      Mawson              44   65432636

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2211 1123     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled, with chance of isolated Active 
                periods
23 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Feb     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 21 February were mainly 
Quiet to Unsettled for the Australian region, with some sites 
experiencing isolated Active periods. Antarctic regions experienced 
mainly Unsettled to Active conditions, with Mawson station observing 
some Minor to Major Storm periods. Global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels, with the chance 
of isolated Active periods, on UT day 22 February, then decrease, 
returning to Quiet levels by 24 February as the coronal hole 
effects wane.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal propagation conditions are expected 22-24 
February. Minor depressions possible on 22 February.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
21 Feb    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -20
Feb      -16
Mar      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                20%
23 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values
24 Feb   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 21 February 
were mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced, with minor 
depressions observed in the Northern Australian region during 
the local day. Sporadic E was observed over most sites. Over 
the next 3 UT days, 22-24 February, MUFs are likely to be near 
predicted monthly values, with some minor depressions up to 20% 
possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: 410 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    65100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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