[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 February 20 issued 2331 UT on 24 Feb 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 25 10:31:26 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Feb 26 Feb 27 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day, 24 February.
There are currently no active regions on the visible disc and
no regions are expected to return. Very Low levels of solar activity
are forecast for the next three days, 25-27 February. No Earth-bound
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT
day 24 February, the solar wind speed varied between 380 and
425 km/s and is currently around 400 km/s. The total IMF (Bt)
varied between 3 nT and 5 nT and the north-south component of
the IMF (Bz) varied between -4 nT and +4 nT. The solar wind is
expected to show some decrease through UT day 25 February and
then show gradual increase to moderate levels through UT day
26 February due to the effects of patchy coronal holes. Solar
wind may remain moderately enhanced on UT day 27 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Feb : A K
Australian Region 1 11001001
Cocos Island 1 11100001
Darwin 2 11001002
Townsville 2 11001002
Learmonth 1 11001001
Alice Springs 1 11001001
Gingin 1 11000002
Canberra 0 1100000-
Hobart 1 12000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 11000001
Casey 8 34211012
Mawson 15 44212044
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1010 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Feb 5 Quiet
26 Feb 7 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Feb 7 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 24 February were Quiet
for the Australian region. Antarctic regions experienced mainly
Quiet to Unsettled conditions, with some isolated Active periods.
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be at mainly Quiet
levels on UT day 25 February. It may increase to Quiet to Unsettled
levels on 26 and 27 February, with a chance of isolated Active
periods, due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal
26 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 24 February
were mostly near predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced.
Some periods of minor MUF depressions were also observed on some
low-latitude stations. Sporadic E was observed over several sites.
Over the UT day, 25 February, MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
may be observed on UT days, 26 and 27 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Feb -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -20
Feb -16
Mar -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
26 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
27 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 24 February
were mostly near predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced.
Some periods of minor MUF depressions were also observed on some
low-latitude stations. Sporadic E was observed over several sites.
Over the UT day, 25 February, MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values in the Australian region. Minor
to moderate MUF depressions may be observed on UT days, 26 and
27 February in this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 430 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 58900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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