[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 December 20 issued 2330 UT on 29 Dec 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 30 10:30:08 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Dec 31 Dec 01 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 29 December. There
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disc, 2794(S18W37)
and 2795(S18W07). Region 2795 produced a B6.6 flare at 29/2104UT
while region 2794 remained inactive. Solar activity is expected
to be very low over the next three UT days, 30 December-01 January,
with a chance of an isolated C-class flare. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. On UT
day 29 December, the solar wind speed was moderately elevated,
450-540 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) range was 2-7 nT and the north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) range was +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to be near its nominal levels to slightly enhanced
over the next three UT days, 30 December-01 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 22111212
Cocos Island 3 11111111
Darwin 4 11111212
Townsville 5 22112122
Learmonth 5 22112212
Alice Springs 5 22111212
Gingin 5 22111222
Canberra 4 22111112
Hobart 5 22112122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 12100102
Casey 19 44532223
Mawson 15 44212234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2122 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Dec 7 Mostly quiet.
31 Dec 5 Quiet
01 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region
on UT day 29 December. Quiet to active conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet over the next three UT days, 30 December-01
January with a chance of isolated unsettled periods..
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions over the next
three UT days, 30 December-01 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Dec 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -6
Dec 5
Jan 8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
31 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near predicted monthly
values on UT day 29 December. Strong sporadic Es were observed
at several Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian region are
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values over the
next three UT days, 30 December-01 January. Sporadic E occurrences
are expected to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 500 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 284000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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