[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 December 20 issued 2330 UT on 30 Dec 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 31 10:30:07 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Dec 01 Jan 02 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 83/24 83/24 83/24
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 30 December. There
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disc, 2794(S18W50)
and 2795(S18W20). Region 2794 remained relatively stale while
region 2795 decreased somehow in area and magnetic complexity.
Solar activity is expected to be very low over the next three
UT days, 31 December-02 January, with a slight chance of an isolated
C-class flare. H-Aplha and SDO images observed a small filament
eruption near region 2795 around 30/0100UT, no clear CME signature
was observed in STEREO and SOHO images. No other Earth directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. On UT
day 30 December, the solar wind speed was moderately elevated,
450-540 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) range was 2-7 nT and the north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) range was +/-5 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to be near its nominal levels to slightly enhanced
over the next two UT days, 31 December-01 January. Solar wind
speed may further enhance from late UT day 3, 02 January due
to HSS from a small northern hemisphere positive polarity coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 22222112
Cocos Island 4 12122101
Darwin 4 21122111
Townsville 5 21222112
Learmonth 6 22222202
Alice Springs 5 21222112
Gingin 6 32221202
Canberra 4 11221111
Hobart 6 22322101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Dec :
Macquarie Island 4 11131101
Casey 21 35543212
Mawson 26 35333236
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2211 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jan 5 Quiet
02 Jan 12 Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of an isolated
active period.
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australian region on UT day 30 December. Storm levels were
observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet with a chance of isolated unsettled
periods today,31 December as the solar wind is still enhanced.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly at quiet levels
on 01 January before increasing again to unsettled with a chance
of an isolated active period on 02 January should earth connect
with HSS from a small positive polarity coronal hole in the northern
hemisphere.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions over the next
three UT days, 31 December-02 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Dec 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -6
Dec 5
Jan 8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Presently SWS is experiencing technical difficulties
with acquiring data from our network. This issue is currently
under investigation. The T index and other HF products are based
on limited data mostly located in the low latitudes region. Based
on the available data, MUFs in the Australian region were near
predicted monthly values on UT day 30 December. Strong sporadic
Es were observed at several Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
over the next three UT days, 31 December-02 January. Sporadic
E occurrences are expected to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 477 km/sec Density: 7.7 p/cc Temp: 230000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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