[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 December 20 issued 2330 UT on 28 Dec 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 29 10:30:09 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Dec             30 Dec             31 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    87/30              87/30              87/30

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 28 December. There 
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disc, ARs 2794(S18W25) 
and 2795(S18E05). Solar activity is expected to be very low for 
29-31 December, with a chance of an isolated C-class flare. No 
Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
images. On UT day 28 December, the solar wind speed was moderately 
elevated, 450-590 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) range was 2-8 nT and 
the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) range was +7/-6 nT. 
This disturbance is due the High Solar Speed Stream(HSS) from 
a small coronal hole. Solar wind speed is expected to remain 
enhanced today, 29 December due to coronal hole influence then 
return to nominal levels over 30-31 December.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 28 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   23322112
      Cocos Island         4   12212021
      Darwin               5   12222112
      Townsville           9   23323212
      Learmonth            8   23322112
      Alice Springs        8   23312212
      Gingin               7   22322122
      Canberra             8   23312212
      Hobart               8   23312212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     6   23222201
      Casey               39   47642133
      Mawson              20   34433153

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1111 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Dec     7    Mostly quiet
31 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 28 December. Storm levels briefly observed in 
the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be mostly quiet for the next three UT day, 29-31 December. 
Possible unsettled periods today, 29 December in response to 
a small equatorial coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be mostly 
normal for 29-31 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Dec     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -6
Dec      5
Jan      8

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Dec    10    Near predicted monthly values
30 Dec    10    Near predicted monthly values
31 Dec    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted 
monthly values on UT day 28 December. Strong sporadic Es were 
observed at several Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
on 29-31 December. Sporadic E occurrences are expected to continue.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 463 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:   103000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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