[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 December 20 issued 2331 UT on 23 Dec 2020

Thu Dec 24 10:31:45 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec:  86/29

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Dec             25 Dec             26 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    86/29              88/32              88/32

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 23 December. AR 
2794 (S18E40) Hhx is stable and quiet while newly assigned AR 
2795 (S18E74) has a Bxo/beta classification and grew overnight. 
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for 24 to 26 
December. No Earth directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph 
images. The solar wind speed increased in speed between ~05-13 
UT on 23 December and peaked at 644 km/s. Current speed near 
535 km/s. The total IMF peaked at 7 nT and the north-south IMF 
(Bz) range was +4/-7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to 
begin to subside later today and through 25 December.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 23 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22232112
      Cocos Island         3   12121110
      Darwin               6   22131112
      Townsville           7   23132112
      Learmonth            7   22232212
      Alice Springs        6   22232102
      Gingin               9   32133221
      Canberra             8   23232112
      Hobart               9   33232112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Dec :
      Macquarie Island    11   22253111
      Casey               22   45542222
      Mawson              20   44332235

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10   3323 2232     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Dec    12    Quiet to Unsettled. Slight chance of an isolated 
                active period.
25 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Dec     7    Quiet

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 21 December 
and is current for 22-24 Dec. Quiet to unsettled conditions were 
observed in the Australian region on UT day 23 December; quiet 
to minor storm levels in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled on 24 
to 26 December. There remains a slight chance of an isolated 
active period on 24 December. The expected disturbance has so 
far not eventuated as the IMF has remained relatively benign, 
despite the high solar wind speed.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be mostly 
normal on 24 to 26 December.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
23 Dec    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -6
Dec      5
Jan      8

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Dec     0    Near predicted monthly values
25 Dec     0    Near predicted monthly values
26 Dec     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 13 was issued on 22 December 
and is current for 22-24 Dec. MUFs in the Australian region were 
mostly near predicted monthly values on UT day 23 Dec. Frequent 
strong sporadic E was observed at most Australian sites. MUFs 
in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values on 24 to 26 December with possible minor depressions 
on 24 Dec.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 543 km/sec  Density:    9.1 p/cc  Temp:   258000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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