[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 December 20 issued 2329 UT on 22 Dec 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 23 10:29:03 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Dec 24 Dec 25 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 86/29 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 22 Dec. There
are currently three numbered regions on the visible disc, 2792,
2793, and 2794. Solar activity is expected to be very low to
low for 23-25 December. There were no Earth directed CMEs observed
in the available coronagraph images on 22 Dec. The solar wind
speed ranged between 460 to 580 km/s, currently around 570 km/s.
Total IMF (Bt) declined from a peak of 13 nT early on 22 Dec.
North-south IMF (Bz) ranged between +8 to -11 nT. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain strong and increase further later
on UT day 23 Dec, due to anticipated coronal hole effects, with
Bt also likely to increase. Solar wind parameters are expected
to start becoming less disturbed during 24-25 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Active, then
quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 33322321
Cocos Island 7 32222310
Darwin 8 33222211
Townsville 11 43322221
Learmonth 13 43323322
Alice Springs 9 33322221
Gingin 13 43323322
Canberra 10 33332221
Hobart 11 33332321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Dec :
Macquarie Island 12 33243221
Casey 31 56533333
Mawson 21 44433252
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2222 1024
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Dec 20 Unsettled then active to minor storm
24 Dec 20 Active to Minor Storm
25 Dec 14 Quiet to Unsettled, with possible active periods
early
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 21 December
and is current for 22-24 Dec. Quiet to unsettled conditions were
observed in the Australian region for most of UT day 22 Dec,
with active conditions observed early in day at some stations.
Unsettled to minor storm conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region from the start of UT day 22 Dec, later becoming quiet
to unsettled. Global geomagnetic conditions on UT day 23 Dec
are expected to start quiet to unsettled, with active or possibly
minor storm levels later on 23 Dec and into 24 Dec, due to coronal
hole effects. Active conditions might persist into early 25 Dec,
subsiding later that day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal Fair
24 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation mid-high latitude conditions are expected
to be mostly normal on UT day 23 Dec, with moderately degraded
conditions at high latitudes. Continuing degraded conditions
at mid-high latitudes on 24 Dec, improving on 25 Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Dec -21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -6
Dec 5
Jan 8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Dec -15 Near predicted monthly values
24 Dec -30 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
25 Dec -20 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 13 was issued on 22 December
and is current for 22-24 Dec. MUFs in the Australian region were
mostly near predicted monthly values to moderately depressed
on UT day 22 Dec. Frequent strong sporadic E was observed over
some Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected
to be mildly depressed on 23 Dec. Deeper depressions are likely
on 24 Dec in response to the anticipated geomagnetic disturbance
associated with the coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 9.7 p/cc Temp: 66600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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