[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 December 20 issued 2340 UT on 21 Dec 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 22 10:40:25 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Dec 23 Dec 24 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 21 Dec. There
are currently three numbered regions on the visible disc, 2792,
2793, and 2794. Solar activity is expected to be very low to
low for 22-24 December. There were no Earth directed CMEs observed
in the available coronagraph images on 21 Dec. The solar wind
parameters trended gently upwards on UT day 21 Dec, with speed
reaching 410 km/s and total IMF (Bt) 13 nT. North-south IMF (Bz)
has been mostly southward for the last 5 hours, reaching -12
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain low until increasing
to moderate or strong levels late on UT day 22 Dec or early 23
Dec. This is in response to solar wind streams from a large recurrent
Northern polar coronal hole with extensions in the low latitude
region.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 21 Dec : A K
Australian Region 11 22233124
Cocos Island 7 12123123
Darwin 11 22233224
Townsville 12 23233224
Learmonth 10 12233124
Alice Springs 11 22233124
Gingin 9 12223124
Canberra 12 13333124
Hobart 13 23333124
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Dec :
Macquarie Island 10 12341014
Casey 21 45433233
Mawson 23 35322155
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0121 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Dec 16 Unsettled to Active with possible Minor Storm
periods
23 Dec 20 Active to Minor Storm
24 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active.
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 21 December
and is current for 22-24 Dec. Quiet to unsettled conditions were
observed in the Australian region for most of UT day 21 Dec,
with active conditions over the last few hours; quiet to minor
storm conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Global
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be active with possible
minor storm periods on UT day 22 Dec, active to minor storm levels
on 23 Dec, and active with a chance of a minor storm on 24 Dec,
due to anticipated coronal hole effects. In the Australian region
magnetometer data for 21 Dec, a weak (7nT) impulse was observed
at 1420 UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be mostly
normal on UT day 22 Dec. Moderately degraded conditions are expected
at the end of UT day 22 Dec and on 23 Dec due to likely increase
in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Dec -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -6
Dec 5
Jan 8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Dec -10 Near predicted monthly values with possible mild
depressions.
23 Dec -15 Near predicted monthly values with possible mild
depressions
24 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly values on UT day 21 Dec. Frequent strong sporadic E were
observed over some Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values to mildly
depressed for the next two UT days, 22-23 Dec, with moderate
depressions possible on 24 Dec in response to the anticipated
geomagnetic disturbance associated with the coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Dec
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 112000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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