[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 December 20 issued 2330 UT on 20 Dec 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 21 10:30:08 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 20 December. There
are currently three numbered regions on the visible disc, 2792,
2793, and 2794. Solar activity is expected to be very low to
low on 21 to 23 December. There were no Earth directed CMEs observed
in the available coronagraph images on 20 December. The solar
wind parameters were at nominal levels on UT day 20 December,
with speed range 350-400 km/s, total IMF (Bt) range 6-3 nT, and
north-south IMF (Bz) range +5/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to be near nominal level on UT day 21 December and early
part of UT day 22 December. At the end of 22 December, the solar
wind speed may increase to moderate and high levels. This is
in response to solar wind streams from a large recurrent Northern
polar coronal hole with extensions in the low latitude region.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 21111102
Cocos Island 3 21111101
Darwin 3 21110102
Townsville 3 21111012
Learmonth 3 21111102
Alice Springs 2 21111001
Gingin 2 21101101
Canberra 3 21111011
Hobart 4 21212012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 11101001
Casey 13 44332212
Mawson 10 32122224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1012 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Dec 7 Quiet
22 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Dec 18 Active
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region
on UT day 20 December; quiet to active conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet on UT days 21-22 December. At the end of UT
day 22 December, geomagnetic conditions can reach unsettled and
active levels due to the anticipated recurrent coronal hole effects.
Occasional minor storm levels are possible on 23 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be mostly
normal on UT days 21-22 December. Moderately degraded conditions
are expected at the end of UT day 22 December and on 23 December
due to anticipated increase in the geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Dec 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -6
Dec 5
Jan 8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
22 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
23 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly values on UT day 20 December. Frequent strong sporadic
E were observed over some Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
for the next three UT days, 21-23 December. Mild to moderate
enhancements are possible on 23 December in response to the anticipated
geomagnetic disturbance associated with the recurrent coronal
hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 319 km/sec Density: 14.1 p/cc Temp: 51000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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