[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 December 20 issued 2330 UT on 17 Dec 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 18 10:30:07 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Dec:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Dec             19 Dec             20 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 17 December. Solar 
activity is expected to be very low to low on 18 to 20 December. 
A westward coronal mass ejection observed in LASCO C2 around 
06-07 UT is not expected to be geoeffective. There were no Earth 
directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph images on 
17 December. Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels on 
17 December, with speed less than 300 km/s, maximum total IMF 
(Bt) of 6 nT and north-south IMF (Bz) range +4/-3 nT. The solar 
wind is expected to be near nominal levels for the next three 
days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   02100000
      Cocos Island         0   01000000
      Darwin               1   11100000
      Townsville           3   12200111
      Learmonth            2   -3100000
      Alice Springs        0   01100000
      Gingin               1   11100000
      Canberra             1   02100000
      Hobart               1   02100000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000000
      Casey                9   34321012
      Mawson               6   21110133

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   1000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Dec     7    Quiet
19 Dec     7    Quiet
20 Dec     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region 
on 17 December; mostly quiet to unsettled conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be mostly quiet for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal 
on 18-20 Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Dec     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -6
Dec      5
Jan      8

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Dec    10    Near predicted monthly values
19 Dec     5    Near predicted monthly values
20 Dec     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted 
monthly values on UT day 17 December. Frequent strong sporadic 
E observed in southern Australian region. Mildly degraded HF 
communications conditions observed local night hours southern 
region Australia. MUFs in the Australian region are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the next three 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Dec
Speed: 283 km/sec  Density:   10.7 p/cc  Temp:    20500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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