[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 December 20 issued 2330 UT on 16 Dec 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 17 10:30:09 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 16 December. Solar
activity is expected to be very low to low on 17 to 19 December.
There were no Earth directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
images on 16 December. The filament eruption around 15/1929 UT
from ~S38W20, did not produce significant ejecta. Solar wind
parameters were at nominal levels on 16 December, with speed
less than 300 km/s, maximum total IMF (Bt) of 6 nT and north-south
IMF (Bz) range +1/-3 nT. The solar wind is expected to be near
nominal levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 12000100
Cocos Island 1 12000100
Darwin 2 12000101
Townsville 4 22111111
Learmonth - --------
Alice Springs 1 12000100
Gingin 2 22011100
Canberra 1 12000000
Hobart 2 12011100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 8 44210101
Mawson 6 23011231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 1010 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Dec 7 Quiet
18 Dec 7 Quiet
19 Dec 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions expected for the next three
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal
on 17-19 Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Dec 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -6
Dec 5
Jan 8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
18 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
19 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly values on UT day 16 December. Moderately depressed MUFs
observed at Norfolk Island local day. Mildly degraded HF communications
conditions observed local night hours southern region Australia.
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly values for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 310 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 29900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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