[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 December 20 issued 2330 UT on 15 Dec 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 16 10:30:08 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 83/24 83/24 83/24
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 15 December. AR2792
(S25E33) has decayed to an Axx/alpha group. AR 2793 (S14E49)
is now a Bxo/beta group. A filament lifted from ~S38W20 around
15/1929 UT; further data is required for analysis. Solar activity
is expected to be very low to low on 16 to 18 December. There
were no Earth directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
images. Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels on 15 December,
with speed less than 365 km/s, maximum total IMF (Bt) of 4 nT
and north-south IMF (Bz) range +2/-4 nT. The solar wind is expected
to be near nominal levels for the next three days, 16 to 18 December.
There may be minor enhancements on 17 to 18 December due to coronal
hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 0 01000000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 2 11111011
Learmonth - --------
Alice Springs 1 01100001
Gingin 1 11100001
Canberra 2 01200011
Hobart 2 11210011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 8 33411011
Mawson 14 52111044
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Dec 7 Quiet
17 Dec 7 Quiet. Chance of late unsettled period.
18 Dec 7 Quiet. Chance of isolated unsettled period.
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region
on 15 December; mostly quiet to unsettled conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be quiet on 16 Dec with mostly quiet conditions on 17 to 18
December. There is a chance of isolated unsettled periods late
17 to 18 December due to minor coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal
on 16 to 18 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Dec 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements at
Darwin by 25% at 05 to 20 UT.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -6
Dec 5
Jan 8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
17 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
18 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly values on UT day 15 December. Sporadic E observed at
Hobart 00-06, 14-19, 22-23 UT, occasionally at Canberra and Sydney
00-03, 16-21 UT, Perth 14-23 UT and Norfolk Is. 01-09 UT. MUFs
in the Australian regions are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values for the next three days, 16 to 18 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 58700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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