[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 December 20 issued 2330 UT on 14 Dec 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 15 10:30:07 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 83/24 83/24 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 14 December with a
C4.0 flare at 1437 UT from AR2792 (S22E43) which is a Bxo/beta
group. A new region AR 2793 (S14E63) is an Axx/alpha group. Solar
activity is expected to be very low to low on 15-17 December.
There were no Earth directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
images. Available solar wind data shows solar wind parameters
at nominal levels, with speed less than 370 km/s, maximum total
IMF (Bt) of 5 nT and north-south IMF (Bz) range +2/-3 nT. The
solar wind is expected to be near its nominal levels for the
next three UT days, 15-17 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11011121
Cocos Island 1 11010110
Darwin 1 11000111
Townsville 3 11011121
Learmonth 3 1111111-
Alice Springs 1 11000111
Gingin 2 10001121
Canberra 2 01010021
Hobart 3 11011121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 01010010
Casey 10 34321121
Mawson 9 23121233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 3100 1110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Dec 7 Quiet
16 Dec 7 Quiet
17 Dec 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region
on 14 December; mostly quiet to unsettled conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet during the next three UT days, 15-17 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal
on 15-17 December.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Dec 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -6
Dec 5
Jan 8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
16 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
17 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: During UT day 14 December, MUFs in the Australian region
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E were observed
at times. MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values for the next three UT days, 15
to 17 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 58200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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