[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 December 20 issued 2330 UT on 13 Dec 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 14 10:30:07 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Dec             15 Dec             16 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              83/24              83/24

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 13 December. Solar 
activity is expected to be very low with a small chance of C-class 
flares during the next three UT days, 14 to 16 December. Through 
UT day 13 December, the solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease 
from around 440 km/s to 340 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied between 
3 and 6 nT, the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied 
in the range +3/-4 nT and the solar wind particle density varied 
mostly from 3 ppcc to 7 ppcc. Solar wind speed is expected to 
stay at nominal levels for the next three UT days. ACE EPAM data 
indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 13/1320UT, 
which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over 
next 24-36 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   20001021
      Cocos Island         1   20000020
      Darwin               2   20001021
      Townsville           4   21112121
      Learmonth            3   20002021
      Alice Springs        2   20001021
      Gingin               3   20002021
      Canberra             2   20001021
      Hobart               2   21001011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     1   11001010
      Casey               10   34312122
      Mawson              16   43112154

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   1000 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Dec     4    Quiet
15 Dec     4    Quiet
16 Dec     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region 
and mostly quiet to unsettled conditions in the Antarctic region 
were observed on UT day 13 December. Three period of active and 
one period of minor storm conditions were also recorded in the 
Antarctic region on this day. Global geomagnetic conditions are 
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three UT days, 14 to 
16 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: During UT day 13 December, MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with periods of minor enhancements. MUFs are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the next three 
UT days, 14 to 16 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Dec    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -6
Dec      5
Jan      8

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Dec    18    Near predicted monthly values
15 Dec    18    Near predicted monthly values
16 Dec    18    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: During UT day 13 December, MUFs in the Australian region 
were mostly near predicted monthly values with periods of minor 
enhancements. MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to 
be mostly near predicted monthly values for the next three UT 
days, 14 to 16 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Dec
Speed: 411 km/sec  Density:    6.8 p/cc  Temp:    59300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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