[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 December 20 issued 2330 UT on 18 Dec 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 19 10:30:10 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Dec: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Dec 20 Dec 21 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 18 December. Solar
activity is expected to be very low on 19 to 21 December. There
were no Earth directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
images on 18 December. Solar wind parameters were at nominal
levels on 18 December, with speed less than 300 km/s, maximum
total IMF (Bt) of 7 nT and north-south IMF (Bz) range +5/-6 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to be near nominal levels for
the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 10111111
Cocos Island 0 00110000
Darwin 1 10110110
Townsville 4 11121122
Learmonth 3 11121101
Alice Springs 1 10110110
Gingin 1 10110011
Canberra 2 10111110
Hobart 3 11121111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00010010
Casey 9 33322112
Mawson 5 31112211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 0 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Dec 7 Quiet
20 Dec 7 Quiet
21 Dec 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region
on 18 December; quiet to unsettled conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet for the next three UT days, 19-21 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be mostly
normal on 19-21 Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Dec 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -6
Dec 5
Jan 8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Dec 0 Near predicted monthly values
20 Dec 0 Near predicted monthly values
21 Dec 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly values on UT day 18 December. Frequent strong sporadic
E observed in southern Australian region. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
for the next three UT days, 19-21 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Dec
Speed: 276 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 22500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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