[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 26 Aug 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 27 09:31:28 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Aug             28 Aug             29 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 26 August. There 
are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar disk. 
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days, 27-29 August. No CMEs were observed in the available 
images. Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind became moderately 
enhanced due to coronal hole effects. The solar wind speed increased 
from 350 to 480 km/s, currently around 430 km/s. The total IMF 
(Bt) reached a maximum of 8.5 nT at 26/0224 UT and is currently 
around 3 nT. The north-south IMF (Bz) varied between -6 to +5 
nT. On UT day 27 August, the solar wind enhancements should decrease, 
but the solar wind is expected to become enhanced again on UT 
days 28-29 August due to the influence of several northern hemisphere 
coronal holes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12120211
      Cocos Island         4   12121210
      Darwin               4   12121211
      Townsville           5   22121211
      Learmonth            4   12220210
      Alice Springs        3   12120210
      Gingin               4   12120211
      Canberra             4   12130200
      Hobart               5   12130211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     5   01140111
      Casey               11   23321341
      Mawson              15   23222335

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1010 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active
29 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mainly Quiet in the Australian 
region on UT day 26 August, with an isolated Unsettled period 
observed at higher latitudes. Mainly Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
were observed in the Antarctic region, with some isolated Active 
periods. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet 
to Unsettled on UT day 27 August, then increase to Unsettled 
to Active levels on UT days 28-29 August due to coronal hole 
influences.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 27-29 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Aug     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -1
Aug      -13
Sep      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
28 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near 
predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values on UT day 26 August. 
Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly to mildly 
elevated values on UT days 27-29 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 356 km/sec  Density:   10.8 p/cc  Temp:    31800 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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