[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 25 Aug 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 26 09:31:34 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Aug             27 Aug             28 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 25 August. There 
are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar disk. 
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days, 26-28 August. No CMEs were observed in the available 
images. Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed varied between 
320-380 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 1-7 nT, and the 
north-south IMF (Bz) varied between -3 to +5 nT. On UT day 26 
August, the solar wind may become mildly enhanced due to the 
possible influence of a northern polar coronal hole, returning 
to near background levels on 27 August. The solar wind is expected 
to become mildly enhanced again, on UT day 28 August, due to 
the influence of a lower latitude northern hemisphere coronal 
hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100010
      Cocos Island         0   01000000
      Darwin               2   12100111
      Townsville           2   11100111
      Learmonth            1   11100110
      Alice Springs        1   11000010
      Gingin               1   11100010
      Canberra             0   10000010
      Hobart               0   01000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                4   23210011
      Mawson               7   10110115

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1100 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated 
                active periods
27 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Aug    12    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet in the Australian 
region on UT day 25 August. Mainly Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic activity 
may increase to Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT days 26-27 August, 
with a chance of isolated active periods on 26 August, if the 
high speed stream from the northern polar coronal hole impacts 
Earth. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to 
Unsettled to Active levels on UT day 28 August due to the influence 
of another coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 26-28 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Aug     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -1
Aug      -13
Sep      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
27 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
28 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near 
predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values on UT day 25 August. 
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near 
predicted monthly to mildly elevated values on UT days 26-28 
August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 387 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:    50400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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