[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 24 Aug 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 25 09:31:35 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 24 August. There
are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar disk.
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 25-27 August. No CMEs were observed in the available
images. Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed declined
from 415 to 340 km/s, currently around 370 km/s. The total IMF
(Bt) varied between 1-4 nT, and the north-south IMF (Bz) varied
between +/-3 nT. On UT day 25 August, the solar wind is expected
to become mildly enhanced due to a Northern polar coronal hole
with a weak equatorward extension. The solar wind is expected
to remain mildly enhanced on UT day 26 August, returning to near
background levels by 27 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 2 12100001
Learmonth 1 20100000
Alice Springs 0 11000000
Gingin 0 11000000
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 23200000
Mawson 6 23201212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2211 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Aug 11 Quiet to Unsettled, with chance of isolated active
periods
26 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region on UT day 24 August. Quiet to unsettled conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on UT days
25-26 August, with a chance of isolated active periods on 25
August, due to coronal hole effects, returning to mainly quiet
conditions on UT day 27 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 25-27 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Aug 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
26 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
27 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values on UT day 24 August.
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly to mildly elevated values on UT days 25-27
August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 62200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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