[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 August 20 issued 2339 UT on 23 Aug 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 24 09:39:28 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 23 August. There
are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar disk.
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 24-26 August. No CMEs were observed in the available
images. Solar wind parameters have been at background to mildly
elevated levels with speed range 330-400 km/s, total IMF (Bt)
range 4-7 nT, and the north-south IMF (Bz) range +6/-4 nT. The
mild solar wind conditions are possibly caused by a Northern
polar coronal hole with a weak equatorward extension. The two
day outlook (24-25 August) is for the solar wind to remain mostly
near background to mildly enhanced levels in response to the
coronal hole effects. Nominal solar wind conditions are expected
on UT day 26 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 22222001
Cocos Island 4 12222001
Darwin 4 22222001
Townsville 7 22232112
Learmonth 5 22222012
Alice Springs 4 12222001
Gingin 6 22123012
Canberra 4 12123001
Hobart 4 12113001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 01013100
Casey 9 33312212
Mawson 18 44223225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 8 1222 1233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Aug 7 Quiet
25 Aug 5 Quiet
26 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region on UT day 23 August. Quiet to active conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly quiet on UT days 24 and 25 August, with isolated
chance of unsettled conditions due to the coronal hole effects.
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 26 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 24-26 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Aug 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
25 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
26 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values on UT day 23 August.
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly to mildly elevated values on UT days 24-26
August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Aug
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 9.2 p/cc Temp: 38200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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