[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 27 Aug 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 28 09:31:29 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Aug             29 Aug             30 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 27 August. There 
are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar disk. 
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days, 28-30 August. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in 
the available coronagraph imagery. Over the last 24 hours, the 
solar wind speed varied between 400 to 450 km/s. The total IMF 
(Bt) ranged between 2 to 7 nT. The north-south IMF (Bz) varied 
between -6 to +4 nT. On UT days 28-30 August, the solar wind 
is expected to become further enhanced due to the influence of 
several northern hemisphere coronal holes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 27 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21113110
      Cocos Island         4   21113110
      Darwin               5   21113111
      Townsville           4   01123111
      Learmonth            6   31223110
      Alice Springs        4   20113111
      Gingin               7   30114120
      Canberra             4   21113100
      Hobart               6   21114110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     8   20225000
      Casey               12   43224121
      Mawson              18   43233235

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2312 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Aug    10    Quiet to Active
29 Aug    14    Unsettled to Active
30 Aug    12    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled in the 
Australian region on UT day 27 August, with an isolated Active 
period observed at higher latitudes. Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
were observed in the Antarctic region, with some isolated Active 
to Minor Storm periods. Global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to increase to Unsettled to Active levels on UT days 28-30 August 
due to coronal hole influences.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 28-30 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Aug     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -1
Aug      -13
Sep      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Aug     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Aug     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Aug     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near 
predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values on UT day 27 August. 
Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly to mildly 
elevated values on UT days 28-30 August.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed: 431 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:   155000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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