[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 19 Aug 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 20 09:31:27 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Aug 21 Aug 22 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 19 August. AR2772
at N18W45 produced B2 and B3 sub-flares respectively at 19/0608
and 19/2248 UT. No CMEs were observed in the available images.
Solar wind parameters have been at background levels with speed
range 321 to 381 km/s, total IMF 2 to 6 nT and the north-south
IMF (Bz) range +4 to -5 nT. Very low to low levels of solar activity
are expected for the next three days, 20 to 22 August. No regions
expected to return. Solar wind parameters may become elevated
on 20 August due to the CME on 16 August. A recurrent coronal
hole wind stream may begin elevating wind parameters on 21 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Aug : A K
Australian Region 0 11000000
Cocos Island 0 01100000
Darwin 0 11000000
Townsville 1 11100011
Learmonth 1 11010000
Alice Springs 0 11000000
Gingin 1 12000000
Canberra 0 11000000
Hobart 1 12000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 02000000
Casey 2 22110000
Mawson 14 44210015
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2212 2113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Aug 19 Quiet to unsettled. Possible active to minor
storm periods.
21 Aug 12 Quiet to unsettled. Possible active periods.
22 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 19 August and
is current for 19-20 Aug. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in
the Australian and Antarctic regions, apart from Mawson, on UT
day 19 August. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected
20 August. However, there may be an increase in activity 20 August
due to CME effects which could result in active with isolated
minor storm levels. Recurrent coronal hole effects are expected
to cause unsettled to isolated active periods later on 21 to
22 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Fair to normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 20 to 22 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Aug 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Aug 0 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Aug 0 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Aug 0 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced on UT day 19 August.
Spread F observed during night hours at Learmonth, Norfolk Is.
Sporadic E observed at Hobart 16-18, 22 UT. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be near predicted monthly values to mildly
enhanced 20 to 22 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 9.3 p/cc Temp: 30300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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