[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 20 Aug 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 21 09:31:33 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Aug             22 Aug             23 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 20 August. AR2772 
at N18W57 produced a B1 sub-flare at 20/0630 UT and appears to 
be decaying. No CMEs were observed in the available images. The 
CME impact has not eventuated. Solar wind parameters have been 
at background levels with speed range 294 to 326 km/s, total 
IMF 1 to 4 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range +/-2 nT. Very 
low to low levels of solar activity are expected for the next 
three days, 21 to 23 August. No regions expected to return. A 
recurrent coronal hole wind stream is expected to moderately 
elevate wind parameters late on 21 or 22 August.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11001000
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Darwin               1   12000001
      Townsville           1   11001011
      Learmonth            1   11001000
      Alice Springs        0   01000001
      Gingin               1   11001000
      Canberra             0   01001000
      Hobart               0   00011000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00011000
      Casey                2   22111000
      Mawson              11   11111154

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              7   3300 2122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Aug    10    Mostly quiet. Unsettled with chance of an isolated 
                active period later.
22 Aug    10    Mostly unsettled. Possible isolated active periods.
23 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The expected CME disturbance has not eventuated. Geomagnetic 
conditions were quiet in the Australian and Antarctic regions 
on UT day 20 August. Conditions are expected to be mostly quiet 
at first, becoming unsettled with possible isolated active conditions 
later on 21 or 22 August. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions 
expected 23 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Fair to normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 21 to 23 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Aug     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -1
Aug      -13
Sep      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Aug     0    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Aug     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Aug     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near 
predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced on UT day 20 August. 
Spread F observed during night hours at Darwin, Townsville, Learmonth, 
Brisbane, Norfolk Is. Sporadic E observed at Cocos Is. 08-09, 
16-21 UT. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near 
predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced 21 to 23 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 336 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    31500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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