[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 18 Aug 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 19 09:31:30 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 18 August. Newly
assigned spot region AR2772 at N17W33 showed development. A small
CME was observed in LASCO images at 18/0024 UT off the west limb
and in STEREO images and is not considered geoeffective. Solar
wind parameters have been at mostly background levels with speed
range of 283 to 368 km/s, total IMF 2 to 9 nT and the north-south
IMF (Bz) range +5 to -7 nT. Very low to low levels of solar activity
are expected for the next three days, 19 to 21 August. There
are no returning regions expected. Solar wind parameters are
expected to be mostly near background levels until around late
19 or early 20 August when there is the possibility of impact
from the CME associated with the B1 flare at 16/1726 UT. A recurrent
coronal hole wind stream may begin elevating wind parameters
late on 21 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 12112012
Cocos Island 3 02111012
Darwin 3 12112011
Townsville 4 12122012
Learmonth 4 12112012
Alice Springs 3 12112002
Gingin 5 12112013
Canberra 2 01112002
Hobart 4 12122002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 00023001
Casey 6 12222013
Mawson 23 21322117
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1101 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Aug 19 Quiet to Unsettled. Possible Active periods.
21 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 18 August. Mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected 19 August. There may be an increase in
activity late on 19 or early 20 August due to CME effects. If
the activity eventuates, active with isolated minor storm levels
are possible. An increase in activity is possible late on 21
August due to recurrent coronal hole effects which may cause
isolated active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Fair to normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 19 to 21 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Aug -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Aug 0 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Aug 0 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Aug 0 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced on UT day 18 August.
Weak ionosphere at Darwin 18-20 UT. Spread F observed during
night hours at Darwin, Learmonth, Brisbane, Norfolk Is. Evening
sporadic E observed at Learmonth and pre-dawn at Sydney, Canberra
and Norfolk Is. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to
be near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced 19 to 21
August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: 303 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 24800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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