[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 14 Aug 2020

Sat Aug 15 09:31:27 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Aug             16 Aug             17 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 14 August. There 
are two numbered regions on the visible disk; AR2770(N22W75) 
and AR2771(S20E22). Both regions decayed to areas of plage. Very 
Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
days, 15-17 August. A small filament structure located in the 
NW quadrant was observed lifting off in GONG H-alpha imagery 
after 14/1400UT. No CME signature was detected in the available 
coronagraph imagery up to 14/1724UT. No other Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. On 14 
August, the solar wind speed was near its background levels, 
under 320 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) and the north-south IMF component 
(Bz) varied in the ranges 2-5 nT and +3/-4 nT, respectively. 
Solar wind speed is expected to stay mostly near its nominal 
levels for 15-17 August.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11000210
      Cocos Island         1   11100110
      Darwin               2   12100200
      Townsville           2   11100211
      Learmonth            2   11000210
      Alice Springs        1   01000200
      Gingin               2   11000121
      Canberra             0   01000100
      Hobart               1   11000100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                2   12200110
      Mawson              19   44000155

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              2   1100 1101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Aug     5    Quiet
16 Aug     5    Quiet
17 Aug     7    Mostly Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian 
region on UT day 14 August. Mostly Quiet global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected for UT days 15-17 August.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected for the 
next three UT days, 15-17 August.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 Aug     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -1
Aug      -13
Sep      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
16 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
17 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near 
predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced values on UT 
day 14 August. Spread F were observed at times over some Australian 
sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near 
predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced values for 15-17 
August.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 289 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:    19500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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