[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 August 20 issued 2335 UT on 15 Aug 2020

Sun Aug 16 09:35:09 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Aug             17 Aug             18 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 15 August with a single 
C2 flare at 15/0647UT from plage region 2770(N22W89). A CME was 
observed in LASCO imagery staring 15/0712 UT. This event was 
analysed, model results shows that it doesn't have any significant 
earth directed component. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph images. A filament structure located 
in the SW quadrant was observed lifting off in SUVI 304 Imagery 
after 15/1428UT. This event will be analysed as imagery becomes 
available. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for 
the next three days, 16-18 August with a slight chance of an 
isolate C class flare. On 15 August, the solar wind speed was 
near its background levels, under 310 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) 
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied in the ranges 1-4 
nT and +/-3 nT, respectively. Solar wind speed is expected to 
stay mostly near its nominal levels for 16-18 August.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 15 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00000100
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               1   10100001
      Townsville           1   00000111
      Learmonth            0   00010100
      Alice Springs        0   00000000
      Gingin               0   00000101
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   00000100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00100000
      Casey                2   11200101
      Mawson               6   20000034

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1200 0111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Aug     5    Quiet
17 Aug     5    Quiet
18 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian 
region on UT day 15 August. Mostly Quiet global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected for UT days 16-18 August.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected for the 
next three UT days, 16-18 August.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
15 Aug     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     ear predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -1
Aug      -13
Sep      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Aug     5    About 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Aug     5    About 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Aug     5    About 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near 
predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced values on UT 
day 15 August. Spread F were observed at times over some Australian 
sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near 
predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced values for 16-18 
August.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: 308 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    18200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Bureau of Meteorology
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