[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 August 20 issued 2333 UT on 13 Aug 2020

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 14 09:33:45 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Aug             15 Aug             16 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 13 August. There 
are two numbered regions on the visible disk: AR2770 and AR2771. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
images. On 13 August, the solar wind speed range was 280-300 
km/s with the total IMF (Bt) range 2 to 4 nT and the north-south 
IMF component (Bz) range +2 to -3 nT. Very low to low solar activity 
is expected for 14-16 August. No returning regions are expected. 
Solar wind speed is forecast to be near its background levels 
for 14-16 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11101000
      Cocos Island         1   11101000
      Darwin               1   11101001
      Townsville           1   11101001
      Learmonth            1   11101000
      Alice Springs        1   11100000
      Gingin               0   10000000
      Canberra             1   21000000
      Hobart               1   11100000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                2   12110000
      Mawson               9   31112134

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1211 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Aug     7    Quiet
15 Aug     7    Quiet
16 Aug     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian 
region and mostly quiet in the Antarctic region on UT day 13 
August. Quiet conditions are expected for 14-16 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected for the 
next three UT days, 14-16 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Aug     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -1
Aug      -13
Sep      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Aug     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Aug     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Aug     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near 
predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced values on UT 
day 13 August. Night spread F were seen at Darwin, Hobart, Learmonth, 
Norfolk Is, Perth, and Townsville. MUFs in the Australian region 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values to moderately 
enhanced values for 14-16 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed: 307 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:    23000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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