[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 12 Aug 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 13 09:31:25 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 12 August. There
are three numbered regions on the visible disk: AR2769, AR2770,
and AR2771. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph images. On 12 August, the solar wind speed range
was 300-325 km/s with the total IMF (Bt) range 2 to 5 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range +3 to -4 nT. Very low
to low solar activity is expected for 13-15 August. No returning
regions are expected. Solar wind parameters are forecast to be
near their background levels for 13-15 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 01101110
Cocos Island 1 01110000
Darwin 2 11101101
Townsville 2 11111011
Learmonth 2 11101110
Alice Springs 0 01000000
Gingin 1 00100110
Canberra 0 00000100
Hobart 2 01111110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 3 22210110
Mawson 6 13201113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 2100 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Aug 7 Quiet
14 Aug 7 Quiet
15 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region and mostly quiet in the Antarctic region on UT day 12
August. Quiet conditions are expected for 13-15 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 13-15 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Aug 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced values on UT
day 12 August. Sporadic E were observed at several sites. Night
spread F were seen at Darwin, Hobart, Learmonth, Norfolk Is,
Perth, and Townsville. MUFs in the Australian region are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced
values for 13-15 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: 302 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 21000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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