[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 11 Aug 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 12 09:31:32 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 11 August. AR2770,
which is now at N22W36, has produced two B-class flares. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. On 11
August, the solar wind speed was near 300 km/s with the total
IMF (Bt) range 3 to 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz)
range +2 to -2 nT. Very low to low solar activity is expected
for 12-14 August. No returning regions are expected. Solar wind
parameters are forecast to be near their background levels for
12-14 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Aug : A K
Australian Region 0 00000000
Cocos Island 0 00100000
Darwin 0 00100001
Townsville 1 11000001
Learmonth 0 00000000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Gingin 0 10000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 10000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 11210100
Mawson 6 33110022
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1100 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Aug 7 Quiet
13 Aug 7 Quiet
14 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region and mostly quiet in the Antarctic region on UT day 11
August. Quiet conditions are expected for 12-14 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 12-14 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Aug 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced values on UT
day 11 August. Sporadic E were observed at several sites. Night
spread F were seen at Darwin, Hobart, Learmonth, Norfolk Is,
Perth, and Townsville. MUFs in the Australian region are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced
values for 12-14 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 326 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 35900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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