[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 02 Aug 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 3 09:31:24 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 02 August. There
are currently three numbered regions on the visible disc, AR2767
(S21W85), AR2768 (N23E03), and AR2769 (N26E55). Region AR2767
will soon rotate to the far side of the Sun. Very low solar activity
is expected for the next three UT days, 03-05 August. No Earthward
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images.
During UT day 02 August, the solar wind parameters were near
their nominal levels up to 0430 UT. Then the solar wind speed
has gradually increased from 330 km/s to 520 km/s, currently
near 520 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) has also increased and reached
12 nT at 1140 UT. From 0919 UT to 1525 UT the north-south IMF
component (Bz) was mostly negative and reached -10 nT at 1143
UT. The solar wind speed is expected to be enhanced during the
next UT day, 03 August, due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 11223312
Cocos Island 5 11212212
Darwin 8 12223312
Townsville 8 12223312
Learmonth 9 11223422
Alice Springs 7 02123312
Gingin 8 11123323
Canberra 7 11133311
Hobart 8 11133322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Aug :
Macquarie Island 11 00044421
Casey 9 22222422
Mawson 12 11113325
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Aug 9 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Aug 7 Quiet
05 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 02 August, geomagnetic conditions were quiet
to unsettled in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region,
geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to active. On UT day
03 August, the global geomagnetic conditions are expected to
be mostly quiet to unsettled with a little chance of isolated
active periods due to coronal hole effects. Then mostly quiet
conditions are expected with possible isolated unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Some degradations are possible in high latitude regions
on 03 August due to the recent increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Aug 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced values on UT
day 02 August. Sporadic E were observed over some sites. MUFs
in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values for the next three UT days, 03-05 August. Some
MUF degradations are possible on UT day 03 August in response
to the recent increase in the geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 27100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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