[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 03 Aug 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 4 09:31:27 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 03 August, with
several B-class flares all from Active Region 2770. AR2770 has
just rotated to the near side of the sun and is currently located
at N22E71. There are three other numbered active regions on the
visible disc. One of these regions, Region AR2767 will soon rotate
to the far side of the Sun. Very low solar activity is expected
for the next three UT days, 04-06 August, with an isolated chance
of C-class flares due to the recent flaring activity on AR2770.
No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
images during the last 24 hours. During UT day 03 August, the
solar wind speed further increased from 500 km/s to 700 km/s,
currently near 660 km/s. This was in response to high speed streams
emanating from a northern polar coronal hole with extension in
the mid latitude region. The total IMF (Bt) range was 5-10 nT,
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied mainly between
+8/-8 nT. The IMF fluctuations and magnitudes were the highest
during the early part of the UT day in response to the passage
of corotation interaction region associated with the coronal
hole. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at these enhanced
levels today (UT day 04 August) as the coronal hole effects persist.
The solar wind speed is expected to decline from UT day 05 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Aug : A K
Australian Region 12 33332322
Cocos Island 9 33221322
Darwin 11 33332312
Townsville 13 33332412
Learmonth 16 43332423
Alice Springs 13 33332422
Gingin 13 33332323
Canberra 10 33232312
Hobart 11 33232322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Aug :
Macquarie Island 21 32462412
Casey 22 44432533
Mawson 54 65653266
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 1113 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Aug 7 Quiet
06 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 03 August, geomagnetic conditions were quiet
to unsettled in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region,
geomagnetic conditions were mostly active to minor storm levels.
These disturbed geomagnetic condition were in response to the
coronal hole effects. On UT day 04 August, the global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with
a chance of isolated active periods as the high solar wind streams
associated with coronal hole are expected to persist for the
next 24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions are expected with possible
isolated unsettled periods on the subsequent UT day (05 August).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Some degradations are possible in high latitude regions
on 04 August due to the recent increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Aug 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced values on UT
day 03 August. Sporadic E were observed over some sites. MUFs
in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values for the next three UT days, 04-06 August. Some
MUF degradations are possible today 04 August in response to
the recent increase in the geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 12.2 p/cc Temp: 75400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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