[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 August 20 issued 2333 UT on 01 Aug 2020

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 2 09:33:00 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Aug             03 Aug             04 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               73/9               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 01 August, with 
a weak B-class flare. There are currently two numbered regions 
on the visible disc, AR2767 (S19W70) and AR2768 (N23E15). Region 
2767 will soon rotate to the far side of the sun. Very low solar 
activity is expected for the next three UT days, 02-04 August. 
A CME first observed in the LASCO C2 imagery at 31/1800 UTC is 
possibly a limb side event and therefore is unlikely to impact 
the earth. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph images. During UT day 01 August, the solar wind speed 
was near its nominal levels, varying in the range 310-350 km/s. 
The total IMF (Bt) range was 2-5 nT, and the north-south IMF 
component (Bz) varied mainly between +3/-2 nT. Enhancements in 
the solar wind speed are possible today (02 August) due to an 
extension of the northern polar coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   01000001
      Cocos Island         0   01000000
      Darwin               1   01100001
      Townsville           1   11001001
      Learmonth            1   01000011
      Alice Springs        0   01000000
      Gingin               0   00000011
      Canberra             0   00001000
      Hobart               1   01111001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00011000
      Casey                3   12201011
      Mawson               9   02211144

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1101 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Aug    12    Unsettled
03 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
04 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 01 August, geomagnetic conditions were quiet 
in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic 
conditions were mostly quiet with some isolated unsettled periods. 
The two-day outlook (UT days 02 and 03 August) is for the geomagnetic 
conditions to reach unsettled levels with a chance of isolated 
active periods, due to the anticipated coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Some degradation is possible in the high latitude regions 
on 02-03 August due to the expected increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Aug     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -1
Aug      -13
Sep      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug   -10    Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near 
predicted monthly to moderately enhanced values on UT day 01 
August. Sporadic E were observed over some sites. MUFs in the 
Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values for the next three UT days, 02-04 August. Some MUF degradations 
are possible on UT day 03 August in response to the coronal hole 
activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 346 km/sec  Density:    7.9 p/cc  Temp:    42700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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