[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 April 20 issued 2331 UT on 14 Apr 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 15 09:31:38 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day, 14 April. There
are currently no sunspot regions on the visible disk. Very low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days,
15-17 April. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind
speed was mostly steady near 400 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) was
in range 3 nT to 8 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz)
varied in the range -6 nT to +6 nT. There were few prolonged
periods of southward (negative values) Bz during the last 24
hours. The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near its
background to mildly elevated levels for the next three days,
14-16 Apr, in response to small patchy coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 22210002
Darwin 3 22210002
Townsville 3 22210002
Learmonth 4 22220002
Alice Springs 3 22210002
Gingin 2 11210002
Canberra 3 31200001
Hobart 3 12220001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Apr :
Macquarie Island 4 12320001
Casey 11 34431011
Mawson 14 44331123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1201 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Apr 7 Quiet
16 Apr 5 Quiet
17 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian region was at
quiet levels through UT day, 14 April. Geomagnetic activity in
the Antarctic region was mostly at quiet to active levels. These
mildly disturbed conditions in high latitude regions were in
response to slightly elevated solar wind speed and prolonged
IMF Bz southward conditions. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly at quiet levels for the next three days, 15-17 April
and a times may reach unsettled levels particularly in the high
latitude regions due to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 15-17 April. Mild degradation may
happen in high-latitude regions due to a possible increase in
geomagnetic activity associated with patchy coronal hole effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Apr -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 1
Apr -14
May -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
16 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
17 Apr 1 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to significant enhancements
for the Australian region on UT day, 14 April. Some periods of
minor MUF depressions were also recorded over Niue Island during
the local day. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over some sites.
MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to stay mostly near
predicted monthly values for the next three UT days, 15 to 17
April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6e+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70e+06 (normal fluence)
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 51800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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