[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 April 20 issued 2331 UT on 15 Apr 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 16 09:31:51 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 16 APRIL - 18 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day, 15 April. There
are currently no sunspot regions on the visible disk. Very low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days,
16-18 April. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind
speed was mostly steady near 410 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) was
in range 1 nT to 5 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz)
varied in the range -3 nT to +3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be mostly near its background to mildly elevated levels for
the next three days, 16-18 Apr, in response to small patchy coronal
holes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 22111112
Darwin 3 22111101
Townsville 4 22121111
Learmonth 5 22121112
Alice Springs 3 22111101
Gingin 5 22111122
Canberra 3 11100003
Hobart 4 22122101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 11121000
Casey 8 33221222
Mawson 25 54432154
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2322 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Apr 5 Quiet
17 Apr 5 Quiet
18 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian region was at
quiet levels through UT day, 15 April. Geomagnetic activity in
the Antarctic region was mostly at quiet to active levels with
an isolated short minor storm periods. These disturbed conditions
in high latitude regions were in response to slightly elevated
solar wind speed and prolonged weak IMF Bz southward conditions.
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at quiet
levels for the next three days, 16-18 April, and occasionally
may reach unsettled levels due to weak coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 16-18 April. Mild degradation may
happen in high-latitude regions due to a possible increase in
geomagnetic activity associated with patchy coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Apr 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 105% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 1
Apr -14
May -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
17 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
18 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to significant enhancements
for the Australian region on UT day, 15 April. Sporadic-E occurrences
were seen over some sites. MUFs in the Australian regions are
expected to stay mostly near predicted monthly values for the
next three UT days, 16 to 18 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Apr
Speed: 401 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 58200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list