[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 April 20 issued 2331 UT on 13 Apr 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 14 09:31:29 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day, 13 April. There
are currently no sunspot regions on the visible disk. Very low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days,
14-16 April. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind
speed ranged between 370 km/s and 420 km/s. The solar wind speed
at the time of writing this report was 390 km/s. The total IMF
(Bt) was mostly steady near 4 nT. The north-south component of
the IMF (Bz) varied in the range -4 nT to +2 nT, and mostly remained
weakly southward (negative values) during the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near its background
levels for the next three days, 14-16 Apr, although some slight
enhancements may be observed due to patchy coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 12102211
Darwin 4 22102211
Townsville 5 22112211
Learmonth 4 12002222
Alice Springs 3 12002211
Gingin 4 11002222
Canberra 3 11201201
Hobart 5 12121221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 00021210
Casey 9 43211222
Mawson 24 33223265
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1211 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Apr 5 Quiet
15 Apr 7 Quiet
16 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian region was at
quiet levels through UT day, 13 April. Geomagnetic activity in
the Antarctic region was mostly at quiet to active levels with
an isolated short minor storm periods. These mildly disturbed
conditions were in response to slightly elevated solar wind speed
and prolonged (though weak) IMF Bz southward conditions. Global
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels
for the next three days, 14-16 April and a times may reach Unsettled
levels due to weak coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 14-16 Apr. Mild degradation may happen
in high-latitude regions due to a possible increase in geomagnetic
activity associated with patchy coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Apr -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 145% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 1
Apr -14
May -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Apr -2 Near predicted monthly values
15 Apr -10 Near predicted monthly values
16 Apr -2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to significant enhancements
for the Australian region on UT day, 13 April. Some periods of
minor MUF depressions were also recorded in the Northern Australian
and Niue Island during the local day. Sporadic-E occurrences
were seen over some sites. MUFs in the Australian regions are
expected to stay mostly near predicted monthly values for the
next three UT days, 14 to 16 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 427 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 99600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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