[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 April 20 issued 2331 UT on 12 Apr 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 13 09:31:30 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day, 12 April. There
are currently no sunspot regions on the visible disk. Very low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days,
13-15 April. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind
speed ranged between 390 km/s and 460 km/s, declining in general.
The solar wind speed at the time of writing this report was 400
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 2 nT and 7 nT. The north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range -4 nT to +4 nT,
and mostly remained southward (negative values) during the last
24 hours. Solar wind speed is expected to continue to decline
towards its nominal levels today (13 April). Some mild enhancements
in solar wind speed are possible on UT day 15 April due to small
patchy recurrent coronal holes reaching geoeffective location
on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 12113221
Darwin 5 12112222
Townsville 7 12213222
Learmonth 7 12113231
Alice Springs 6 12113221
Gingin 7 12113231
Canberra 2 01112110
Hobart 7 12223221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Apr :
Macquarie Island 8 01134310
Casey 10 23333221
Mawson 17 23323254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7 1111 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Apr 5 Quiet
14 Apr 5 Quiet
15 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian region was quiet
to unsettled levels through UT day, 12 April. Geomagnetic activity
in the Antarctic region was mostly at quiet to active levels
with an isolated short minor storm periods. There mildly disturbed
conditions were in response to slightly elevated solar wind speed
and prolonged (though weak) IMF Bz southward conditions. Mostly
quiet levels of global geomagnetic activity may be expected for
UT days, 13 and 14 April. Conditions can reach unsettled to active
levels on UT day 15 April due to recurrent patchy coronal holes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 13-15 Apr. Mild degradation may happen
in high-latitude regions on 15 Apr due to a possible increase
in geomagnetic activity associated with patchy coronal hole effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Apr -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 85% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 1
Apr -14
May -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Apr -2 Near predicted monthly values
14 Apr -2 Near predicted monthly values
15 Apr -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to significant enhancements
for the Australian region on UT day, 12 April. Some periods of
minor MUF depressions were also recorded in the Southern Australian
regions. MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to stay
mostly near predicted monthly values for the next three UT days,
13 to 15 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2e+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20e+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 34300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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