[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 26 Sep 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 27 09:31:29 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Sep 28 Sep 29 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 26 September
with no active regions on the visible disc. No active regions
are expected to rotate onto the visible disc and very low solar
activity is expected for the next three UT days, 27-29 September.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 26 September, the solar wind speed was was
in the range 350-400 km/s, gradually decreasing on average. The
total IMF (Bt) varied between 1 and 5 nT and Bz ranged between
-1 and +3 nT. On 27 September, the solar wind speed is expected
to increase; it can reach and exceed 600 km/s due to arrival
of the high speed solar wind stream associated with a recurrent
trans-equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 21100000
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 2 22100000
Townsville 2 21101000
Learmonth 1 21100000
Alice Springs 1 21100000
Gingin 1 21000000
Launceston 1 11100100
Hobart 0 10000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 7 43310001
Mawson 11 52111014
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1011 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Sep 29 Quiet to Minor Storm
28 Sep 40 Minor Storm
29 Sep 18 Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 24 September
and is current for 27 Sep only. Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity
were recorded in the Australian region on UT day 26 September.
In the Antarctic region, mostly quiet conditions were observed,
although unsettled to minor storm levels were also recorded.
On UT day 27 September geomagnetic activity is expected to rise
to active and minor storm levels due to coronal hole effects.
Mostly active and minor storm levels are expected for 28 September.
Isolated major storm periods are possible for both 27 and 28
September. Then geomagnetic activity is expected to decline to
mostly unsettled to active levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
28 Sep Fair Fair-poor Poor
29 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions were observed
during UT day 26 September. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
were mostly near predicted monthly values; some periods of minor
to moderate MUF enhancements as well as depressions were also
observed in some regions. During the next three UT days, 27-29
September, degraded HF propagation conditions are expected due
to predicted increase in geomagnetic activity. In particular,
moderate MUF depressions are possible in high-latitude regions
in Southern hemisphere on 28 and 29 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Sep -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug -3
Sep -14
Oct -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Sep 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
29 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day
26 September. Some periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements
were also observed, mostly in the Southern Australian region.
Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites.
For the next three UT days, 27-29 September, MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values; moderately enhanced
MUFs are likely for 27 September. Degraded HF propagation conditions
are likely for 27-29 September as a consequence of the predicted
increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6e+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00e+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 430 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 62500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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